Islamabad, Pakistan – When the Taliban retook Kabul in August 2021, then-Prime Minister Imran Khan remarked that they had “broken the shackles of slavery.” This marked the group’s return to power after 20 years and was viewed in Pakistan as a win for its influence in the region.
Historically, Pakistan has supported the Taliban, hoping to use Afghanistan as a strategic buffer against its long-time rival, India. However, as time has passed, this strategy seems to have backfired. Today, Pakistan’s relationship with the Taliban is under strain, especially as the group has begun forming ties with India.
Last week, India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri met with Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi in Dubai. This was a significant meeting, showing signs of a shift in relations between India and the Taliban. Previously, India had closed its embassy in Kabul in 1996 due to security concerns linked to Taliban attacks on Indian missions.
The evolving dynamics have raised concerns in Islamabad. Iftikhar Firdous, co-founder of The Khorasan Diary, warned that increased Indian influence in Afghanistan could worsen relations between Pakistan and Kabul. He noted that ordinary Afghans, who rely heavily on Pakistan, might feel the effects of this shifting balance.
For decades, Pakistan provided support to the Taliban, offering refuge to many of its leaders. Meanwhile, India’s relationship with the group has always been more adversarial, viewing the Taliban as an extension of Pakistani influence. After the Taliban’s recent rise, India has recalibrated its approach and is now engaging diplomatically with Taliban officials.
In December 2024, the tensions reached a new peak with cross-border strikes between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Pakistan has faced severe violence from the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which the Afghan Taliban is accused of harboring. This connection has led to escalating fears within Pakistan about the security implications of a more empowered Taliban.
In contrast, India has been looking for ways to capitalize on its relationship with the Taliban. High-level diplomatic talks began in November 2024, suggesting a significant change. Following Misri’s meeting, India’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs referred to Afghanistan as a “significant regional and economic partner.”
Some analysts in Pakistan, however, are not overly concerned. Asif Durrani, a former special representative to Afghanistan, argued that the relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan is deeper than what India can establish. Despite India’s renewed interest in Afghanistan, geography remains a crucial factor. Afghanistan depends on Pakistan for trade, particularly since it is landlocked.
However, not everything is stable. India has invested over $3 billion in Afghanistan in the past two decades, with crucial trade routes still primarily through Pakistan. Rising tensions, especially related to TTP attacks, have complicated Pakistan’s role. In 2023 alone, the TTP claimed responsibility for numerous attacks, leading to significant casualties, including law enforcement personnel.
Attempts to mend ties have taken place, with Pakistani officials meeting their Afghan counterparts, trying to de-escalate recent tensions. Nevertheless, incidents like air strikes executed by Pakistan in border regions have sparked retaliatory threats from the Afghan Taliban, reflecting the uneasy relationship.
Recent discussions have also involved the Chabahar port in Iran. During the talks between Misri and Muttaqi, they talked about increasing trade through this port, which offers Afghanistan an alternative route without relying on Pakistan. Chabahar could change the trade dynamics, given Afghanistan’s need for access to global markets.
This port, located in Iran, lies close to Pakistan’s Balochistan province. The region has experienced conflict, with both Iran and Pakistan launching air strikes against each other in recent years in response to alleged sheltering of armed groups. Ongoing tensions have fueled suspicions, with Pakistan fearing Indian influence could exacerbate separatist movements within its own borders.
Analysts believe that India’s involvement in Afghan trade via Chabahar will be perceived by Pakistan as an infringement on its interests. This reflects a broader narrative within Pakistan, which sees India’s actions as meddling in internal affairs.
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