Potential Moon Collision: What a Massive Asteroid Impact Could Mean for Earth

There’s a lot to unpack regarding the asteroid named 2024 YR4, which was first spotted in December 2024. Initially, scientists were worried it might strike Earth on December 23, 2032, and cause massive destruction — enough to level a city.

Recently, though, researchers at Cornell University presented new findings to the American Astronomy Society. They confirmed that Earth isn’t at risk of a direct hit from 2024 YR4 anymore. Good news, right? But there’s a twist: the likelihood of this asteroid hitting the moon has slightly increased, from 3.8% to 4.3%.

If the asteroid does collide with the moon, it could shoot debris toward Earth. A report from New Scientist explains that this debris could include satellite-destroying shrapnel, potentially causing decades worth of damage in a short time.

Dr. Paul Wiegert, an astronomy professor at the University of Western Ontario, led the study. He noted that the asteroid could impact the moon at a staggering speed of 29,000 miles per hour. This would create a crater more than half a mile wide, marking the largest impact on the moon in 5,000 years.

Experts emphasize that while the odds are still low, the presence of the Earth’s gravity could pull back about 10% of the debris if the moon is hit. Wiegert pointed out that our planet looks small from the moon, making it seem like less material would fall back to Earth. However, gravity can focus this material under certain conditions.

It’s a reminder that while we can celebrate the absence of an immediate threat to Earth, the situation with the moon could still pose challenges. For now, we can breathe a little easier, but it’s useful to keep an eye on developments over the next few years.

For further reading on the risks of 2024 YR4, check out this New Scientist article and the Men’s Journal coverage.

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