Renowned Climate Scientist Declares the 2°C Climate Change Target ‘Dead’: What It Means for Our Planet

Renowned climate scientist Prof. James Hansen claims we have seriously underestimated the speed of global warming. He believes the international goal of limiting temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius is no longer achievable.

In a recent analysis, Hansen and his team highlighted two main issues: recent reductions in shipping pollution have unintentionally raised temperatures, and the climate is more sensitive to fossil fuel emissions than we previously thought.

The study predicts that global temperatures could reach 2 degrees Celsius by 2045 if we don’t adopt drastic measures like solar geoengineering. Hansen stated that the scenario proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for keeping warming under 2 degrees is essentially off the table. He pointed out that energy use is on the rise, making it difficult to meet those targets.

Already, extreme weather events have intensified due to an average temperature increase of 1.3 degrees Celsius. A rise to 2 degrees Celsius would significantly worsen the situation.

Prof. Jeffrey Sachs from Columbia University remarked that a surprising increase in warming has come from a reduction in pollutants, providing us with a new and alarming outlook on our climate trajectory.

The study also suggests that the Earth’s climate might react more severely to rising carbon emissions than previously estimated. This increase in sensitivity is partly due to the unexpected impact of reducing shipping emissions, which historically have acted as a barrier against solar radiation hitting the Earth.

Some scientists, like Dr. Zeke Hausfather, noted that while Hansen’s findings may lean towards a worst-case scenario, they cannot be entirely dismissed. They emphasize the need for more research to clarify these issues surrounding pollution and climate sensitivity.

For decades, ships have emitted sulphate particles that reflected sunlight, helping to keep the planet cooler. However, new regulations in 2020 have significantly reduced these emissions, allowing more heat to reach the surface. Hansen’s team estimates this increase in sunlight exposure has added about 0.5 watts per square meter to global temperatures, which is higher than findings from other research groups.

The researchers also stressed the importance of taking a realistic approach to climate assessments. They argued that forecasts reliant on computer models shouldn’t overshadow real-world observations from past climate patterns.

Recent years have already seen unusual temperature spikes, driven mainly by increasing CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels, compounded by the cyclical El Niño phenomenon. But scientists are puzzled by the heat’s persistence even after the El Niño event, suggesting there may be new factors at play that we don’t yet understand.

The consequences of these rapid changes could be dire. Hansen’s team warns that if we do not take urgent action, we might see the collapse of vital ocean currents, substantially raising sea levels and triggering further climate catastrophes within the next 20 to 30 years.

He argues that groundbreaking policies are needed. A proposed carbon tax could help curb emissions by charging fossil fuel companies for their pollution. This revenue could then be returned to the public, making it a win-win for both the environment and citizens.

In conclusion, Hansen insists that we need systemic political change to prioritize scientific solutions over special interests. Young people today are crucial to pushing for these changes, and awareness of all potential climate solutions, even geoengineering, should not be off the table.

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