We’re just one week away from the 97th Oscars, and the competition for Best Picture, Best Actor, and Best Actress is more intense than ever. The SAG Awards, which can be a good indicator of Oscar winners, recently took place and brought some surprises.
It’s worth mentioning that the Academy members already submitted their final ballots, so the SAG results won’t change any votes. However, they might give us a glimpse of what to expect.
The 160,000 members of SAG-AFTRA picked Conclave for the Best Ensemble award. This was unexpected because many thought Wicked or Anora would take it. Anora had been winning accolades leading up to the SAGs, but maybe Conclave benefited from being available for streaming before the holidays.
Conclave heads to the Oscars with some mixed signals. It didn’t get a nomination for Best Director, which some are questioning, but it won major awards at both the BAFTAs and the SAGs. Historically, only one film has won Best Picture at the Oscars without a directing nod: Argo in 2012.
The success of Conclave at the SAGs suggests that there’s a lot of support for this film. However, predicting the winner is tricky. The Best Ensemble award overlaps with the Best Picture Oscar only 15 times in 30 years. Yet, many surprise Best Picture winners, like Shakespeare in Love and Parasite, also won Best Ensemble.
The Oscars use a preferential voting system for Best Picture, which could favor a film like Conclave if it’s generally liked, unlike Anora, which might be more divisive.
In the Best Actor race, the SAG Awards added some uncertainty. Adrien Brody had been the favorite, winning major awards with The Brutalist. But the SAGs recognized Timothée Chalamet for A Complete Unknown. While The Brutalist has more Oscar nominations, Chalamet’s film is more popular and accessible.
If Brody wins, he’ll join a small group with multiple Best Actor Oscars. Chalamet, on the other hand, could set a record as the youngest winner if he clinches the award, currently held by Brody.
The Best Actress category is also heating up. The SAG Awards featured Demi Moore from The Substance and Mikey Madison from Anora. Moore’s win hints at strong industry support, especially since her previous awards were from journalists.
Moore now appears to have an edge, but we can’t forget about Fernanda Torres from I’m Still Here. Though her film gained traction later in the awards season, some voters who watched it recently were impressed.
In supporting categories, Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain and Zoe Saldaña in Emilia Pérez are leading. If either loses at the Oscars, it would be a surprise, possibly due to their films’ nominations.
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SAG Awards,SAG Awards 2025
