Secret Climate Change Memo Reveals Warnings About Potential Damage to Diplomatic Relations

Officials have raised alarms about the government stepping back from New Zealand’s climate commitments. They warned that doing so could encourage larger countries, particularly China, to slack off on their own efforts.

This advice was accidentally revealed through the Official Information Act by the Ministry for the Environment (MFE). To clarify the sensitive details, both MFE and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) have tried to redact the information afterward.

In an April briefing paper, officials cautioned that not meeting the first target under the Paris Agreement could harm New Zealand’s global standing and create trust issues with key allies, including those in the Five Eyes Intelligence Alliance: Australia, Canada, the UK, and the US.

Reaction from experts supports these concerns. Professor James Shaw, a climate expert, emphasized that New Zealand’s credibility hinges on its willingness to engage with international climate efforts. He noted, “Every step back we take now could result in other countries doing the same, leading to a cascading effect on global climate commitments.”

The paper highlighted that failing to seal climate cooperation deals last year was a missed opportunity. These agreements, especially with countries like Kenya and Peru, could help fund projects needed to achieve about two-thirds of New Zealand’s emissions target by 2030. New Zealand’s government, however, has yet to make substantial moves in this direction.

Recent statistics show that nearly 60% of voters support stronger climate action. This growing public sentiment adds pressure on the government. Yet, officials admit that without international collaboration, New Zealand risks falling short of its emissions goals.

Officials stressed that other nations would view a retreat from commitments very negatively, undermining international climate solidarity. Countries like Switzerland and Sweden have struck similar UN-backed deals, demonstrating that proactive steps yield tangible benefits.

Conversely, the reluctance of New Zealand’s government to invest in these international partnerships may hinder its influence in the Pacific at a time when geopolitical competition is intensifying. It’s not just a regional concern; global climate strategies are at stake.

The MFE has suggested that making purchases to fund emissions-reduction projects abroad is essential to avoid falling behind. Experts estimate that meeting domestic targets would require monumental changes, such as fully electrifying all road transport over just four years—a daunting task that could lead to significant economic strain.

In light of these challenges, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts continues to assert that the government is committed to its targets. However, he acknowledges that no decisions on international carbon purchasing have been finalized yet.

To sum up, the pressure is mounting. New Zealand’s climate commitments hinge on timely action. The cascading consequences of inaction could affect not just our international reputation but also the global climate agenda as a whole.



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