Slow Snowpack Start in the Rockies: How Wetter Soils Could Signal a Bright Winter Ahead

Snow levels in the Upper Colorado River Basin are surprisingly low for this time of year. Experts point to warmer temperatures in November as a key reason.

Seth Arens, a research scientist with the Western Water Assessment, noted that many areas in October were two to four degrees warmer than usual, and November has been even hotter. “Temperatures have been running six to twelve degrees above normal,” he said. “This warmth has caused some early snowfall to melt.”

Monitoring data shows that many sites are recording snow-water equivalent below 50% of the average for this season. However, southern Colorado and parts of Utah have exceptions, with some areas reaching up to 170% of normal levels.

Recent rains from Pacific hurricanes have benefited Colorado, bringing much-needed water and easing drought conditions. As of late October, about 66% of the state is classified as “abnormally dry,” a significant improvement from earlier in the month when 14% faced extreme drought.

These rains have also raised water levels in reservoirs like Navajo Lake, increasing by over 100,000 acre-feet, which is about 10% of its total capacity. This increase is critical, as winter usually results in decreasing reservoir levels.

Arens emphasized the importance of soil moisture as winter approaches. If the soil is wet, water from melting snow will flow more effectively into rivers instead of being absorbed into dry ground. This efficient runoff is crucial for water availability in the spring.

Last winter saw poor runoff despite reasonable snow levels: with an average snowpack of 80%, streamflows fell to about 40% due to dry soils. This led to difficulties in planning for irrigation and municipal water usage.

Climate change plays a role in these patterns. The shifting temperatures can lead to earlier snowmelt, not allowing rivers to replenish as needed. As seven states rely on the Colorado River, this coming winter will be essential in determining how water will be allocated after 2026, especially concerning the significant reservoirs of Lake Powell and Lake Mead.

Arens warns that if conditions are similar to last year, the Colorado River basin may face serious challenges ahead. “We could hit minimum power pool levels at Lake Powell next year if runoff is below 50% again,” he said.

This situation underscores the ongoing complexities of water management in the region. Keeping an eye on soil moisture and snowfall will be key as we move into winter.

For more insights, you can explore ongoing water management discussions and drought updates from the U.S. Drought Monitor.

Source link

colorado river,colorado river drought,drought,mountain west snowpack,rocky mountains snowpack,seth arens,snowpack,upper colorado river basin,western water assessment