The Moon is always getting hit by stuff from space. Later this year, it’s set to experience a significant impact when a piece of debris from Earth—a Falcon 9 rocket stage—smashes into it. This rocket stage is as tall as a five-story building and will hit the Moon at about seven times the speed of sound.
Bill Gray, an astronomer who tracks near-Earth objects using his software, predicts this crash will occur on August 5, 2026. The impact will likely happen near the Einstein Crater, a site that’s already seen its share of action.
Gray explains that the path of space junk is mostly predictable. It’s influenced mainly by gravity, which helps us understand where it will go. However, solar radiation, or sunlight, also plays a role. This force is weak but can create unexpected changes as the object moves.
The Falcon 9 rocket is a reusable vehicle that stands 70 meters tall and weighs over 550,000 kilograms. Its first stage comes back to Earth, while the second stage remains in orbit. The section that will crash into the Moon is part of a mission that launched two lunar landers in January 2025.
Right now, this upper stage orbits Earth about every 26 days. Its closest approach gets it within 220,000 kilometers of Earth, while its farthest point reaches about 510,000 kilometers. As it orbits, its path intersects with that of the Moon, which sits roughly 400,000 kilometers away.
Indeed, past missions have also created marks on the Moon. During the Apollo missions in the 1970s, modules crashed to study the lunar surface. NASA’s LCROSS probe also hit the Moon in 2009, uncovering water ice that had been hidden for billions of years.
As the Falcon 9 stage approaches, it’s expected to leave a new crater. This impact won’t pose a danger; there are no humans or structures up there to hit. The Moon is mostly just a collection of old spacecraft and souvenirs from astronauts.
Yet, the issue of space junk is becoming critical. With more missions planned, like Artemis IV, aiming to carry astronauts to the Moon by 2028, the potential for collisions increases. The risk that space debris poses to satellites and future astronauts needs immediate attention.
Experts suggest that keeping upper stages in safe orbits, where they won’t crash into our Moon, could be a feasible solution. As technology advances and lunar exploration grows, it’s essential to address these challenges now to prevent future problems.
For more on this topic, you can visit Project Pluto.
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