If talks with Iran fail, the U.S. may quickly take steps to weaken Iran’s military power, starting with missile systems and naval resources. Analysts suggest that this could escalate to more significant targets.
Currently, negotiators are crafting what’s called a preliminary framework agreement, a brief outline meant to kick off more in-depth discussions about Iran’s nuclear program. However, heavy mistrust between the two sides makes the situation fragile and raises concerns about what might happen if diplomatic efforts collapse.
Retired Army Colonel Seth Krummrich, a former Joint Staff planner and current Vice President at Global Guardian, highlights the deep mistrust. “We’re not starting at zero. We’re starting at minus 1,000,” he says. This distrust is evident in recent military actions.
For example, U.S. forces reportedly targeted Iran’s Qeshm port and Bandar Abbas—strategic locations near the Strait of Hormuz. Despite this, officials maintain that these strikes do not signal the end of the ceasefire.
Just days before, Iran fired 15 missiles at the UAE’s Fujairah Port, prompting a strong response from Gulf nations. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth commented that the attack was minor and did not break the ceasefire.
Former President Donald Trump often stated that renewed conflict would likely lead to U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure. However, such actions would probably unfold in stages, starting with dismantling Iran’s regional military capabilities before targeting other assets.
If tensions flare again, retired Air Force Lt. Gen. David Deptula warns it would turn into a struggle for control, with Iran seeking to inflict damage without provoking a major U.S. response. He notes that the main focus for the U.S. would be to limit Iran’s ability to exert military pressure.
According to Deptula, the U.S. would aim to neutralize key Iranian capabilities—ballistic and cruise missiles, air defense networks, and others used by Iran to maintain regional influence. The goal would not just be to punish Iran but to eliminate the tools that allow it to escalate tensions.
These dynamics reflect a complex chess game where each side seeks to maximize its position while managing the ever-present risk of significant conflict.
For more context on military tensions and international diplomacy, you can check insights from the Council on Foreign Relations or explore the data from recent surveys on public perception regarding military actions by the U.S. and Iran.
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