Trump Administration Predicts 50,000 Federal Employees May Soon Lose Civil Service Protections: What It Means for Workers

About 50,000 federal workers are facing a change that could strip away their job protections. The Trump administration wants to reclassify these employees to an “at-will” employment status. This means they could be fired more easily, without the usual civil service protections.

According to a new proposed rule from the Office of Personnel Management (OPM), many career federal workers may be moved to a new category called Schedule Policy/Career. When this happens, usual merit-based hiring rules would not apply, allowing agencies to dismiss workers more quickly.

President Trump recently stated that federal employees should align with the President’s policy goals. He mentioned in a social media post, “If these government workers refuse to advance the policy interests of the President… they should no longer have a job.” He believes this shift will help run the government more efficiently, like a business.

The OPM plans to publish its proposed rule soon, but it won’t instantly change any jobs. Instead, an executive order will finalize the changes once the rule is ready.

Initially, estimates suggested that nearly 200,000 federal positions could be affected. Now, officials say 50,000 is a more accurate estimate. The OPM believes around 45,000 of these positions would be filled by current employees, and 5,000 by new hires, possibly after a hiring freeze. Kevin Owen from Gilbert Employment Law warned that this could lead to an unfair “spoils system,” where agency leaders pick employees based more on loyalty than on merit.

This plan is reminiscent of Trump’s earlier Schedule F initiative, which aimed to reclassify many federal workers for similar reasons. Although President Biden rescinded that order, experts worry that lasting changes could emerge again.

Chuck Ezell, OPM’s Acting Director, emphasized that employees involved in shaping policy should be held to high standards. Yet, Owen expressed concerns that ongoing staff reductions by agencies might already be causing significant disruption: “I think it will have a significant chilling effect and undermine the effectiveness of the federal government.”

Critics of this proposed change raise alarm. Robert Shea, a former official under George W. Bush, once described Schedule F as creating an “army of suck-ups.” He hopes the new policies focus more on performance than on political loyalty, highlighting the potential for mismanagement.

Labor organizations like the American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE) and the National Treasury Employees Union are fighting back. They argue this move undermines the integrity of federal hiring by promoting political patronage over skill and experience. They have even filed lawsuits claiming the Trump administration is skirting established hiring regulations.

Supporters of the reclassification often point to recent surveys highlighting performance issues in federal agencies. For example, a 2024 Federal Employee Viewpoint Survey revealed that 40% of employees said underperformers stay in their roles. The White House argues this situation underscores the need for greater accountability among policy-making employees.

Conversely, organizations like the Partnership for Public Service argue that this approach might worsen problems in government. They propose enhancing merit-based evaluations rather than dismantling existing systems. In a recent statement, Partnership President Max Stier emphasized the need for evidence-based approaches to performance management that respect merit principles.

The outcome of this debate could have lasting effects on how federal employment is structured, affecting not only employees but also the quality of services provided to the public. Ultimately, how this plays out will reveal much about the future direction of civil service in the U.S.

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