President Trump recently spoke about an upcoming agreement with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that he claims could be worth a trillion dollars. He believes this deal would give the United States access to Ukraine’s rare earth minerals. However, many US officials disagree, arguing there is little proof of significant rare earth resources in Ukraine. Much of what is known comes from outdated Soviet-era maps, and mining in the war-torn east may be nearly impossible.
“We’ll be dig, dig, digging,” Trump told reporters ahead of Zelensky’s visit. He suggested that American taxpayers would be repaid for their support of Ukraine.
The agreement could benefit Zelensky, as it offers him political leverage when US support seems to be waning. A senior US official stated, “It’s an important political undertaking that binds the two countries together.”
Current assessments of Ukraine’s minerals are unclear. Experts have noted a lack of modern studies on what resources are actually available. The US Geological Survey indicates that Ukraine has no proven reserves of rare earth minerals or the facilities needed to process them. While the country does possess other critical minerals like lithium and titanium, their quantity is insignificant compared to what other nations have.
Jack Conness, a senior analyst, summed it up: “If we zoom out, it’s not a ton.” The truth is, Ukraine does not have the mineral wealth that has been suggested.
The idea for this deal originated from Zelensky before last September when he proposed a “Victory Plan” during a visit to the US. Both Trump and Biden’s teams heard this plan, which involved offering the US some access to Ukraine’s natural resources in return for ongoing support.
However, the practicality of this deal is questionable. A former Biden administration official mentioned, “I’m not aware of a single US company that was clamoring to get into the mining business in Ukraine.”
Officials now believe Zelensky is specifically targeting Trump, as they see him as more transactional and potentially less inclined to maintain strong US support for Ukraine. Conversations inside the Trump administration have echoed this sentiment, with no recent assessments of Ukraine’s rare earth minerals confirming Trump’s claims.
Initial expectations were far too high. Trump initially wanted a $500 billion share of Ukraine’s resources. After negotiations, the proposed deal suggests delivering $350 billion worth of aid for military equipment and support.
While maps indicate there are mineral deposits in Ukraine, many are in areas far from conflict and even more are under Russian control or hazardous land. Processors have noted that extracting minerals, especially rare earth elements, can be both time-consuming and expensive.
Comments from Trump reflect uncertainty about the actual availability of resources: “You dig and maybe things aren’t there like you think they’re there.” Despite that, he views this as a major economic development project for both nations.
The draft of the agreement does not mention Trump’s assertions about recouping financial aid through mineral access. Instead, it talks about creating a “Reconstruction Investment Fund” to help rebuild Ukraine.
As Trump pushes for an end to the war, Zelensky’s government seeks guarantees from the US to deter any future Russian invasion. Trump has stated he won’t send troops to Ukraine and doesn’t support NATO membership for the country, which some critics see as concessions to Russia.
Trump’s officials argue that a minerals deal would ultimately serve as a security guarantee, making US interests in Ukraine valuable. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz noted that economic investments could help stabilize the region.
The agreement lacks specifics about the resources and locations that will be explored, leaving many details undecided for future negotiations. This vagueness poses further challenges for the prospect of successfully extracting resources from Ukraine.
While Russia’s economy is struggling, it remains capable of sustaining its military efforts. From Zelensky’s viewpoint, aligning with the Trump administration through a mineral deal could ensure continued support for Ukraine.
Ultimately, despite the potential benefits of a deal, experts and officials doubt that Ukraine’s mineral wealth will provide substantial advantages. The risks and uncertainties associated with extracting these resources raise serious questions about the viability of the entire endeavor.
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