Trump’s Popularity on the Line: Wisconsin and Florida Voters Head to the Polls – What It Means for 2024

Voters in Wisconsin and Florida are heading to the polls on Tuesday, and these elections are stirring up a lot of attention. Some see this as a way to gauge Donald Trump’s popularity, particularly with his billionaire friend Elon Musk involved.

In Wisconsin, the most anticipated event is the race for a seat on the state’s Supreme Court. Conservatives aim to gain control, which currently sits with a 4-3 liberal majority. The battle is between liberal judge Susan Crawford and conservative candidate Brad Schimel. This isn’t just a court seat; it’s about reshaping the future of significant issues like abortion rights and collective bargaining. The Supreme Court could also force the state legislature to redraw the congressional district maps, which are notably skewed to favor Republicans.

This election has become the most expensive judicial race in U.S. history, racking up over $80 million in spending from both sides. Elon Musk and his supporters alone have contributed more than $20 million. Musk even flew to Wisconsin to give away $1 million to voters through a contest—an unusual tactic for political engagement. His involvement followed a lawsuit against a Wisconsin law that restricts Tesla from opening car dealerships there. Interestingly, Musk’s spending is seen by some as a way to influence the judicial system in light of political actions by Trump.

Recent statistics indicate that advertising for Crawford has outpaced Schimel’s—$42.1 million compared to $33.7 million, according to AdImpact. This is a massive leap from previous elections; the 2023 state Supreme Court race saw total spending around $51 million, and the 2020 race combined was just $10 million.

Democrats are keen to use Musk’s presence as a rallying cry for voters concerned about his influence in politics and the implications of Trump’s recent tenure. Ben Wikler, chairman of the Wisconsin Democratic Party, noted that this race is a crucial test of Musk’s political power since the last presidential election.

Meanwhile, in Florida, a special election to fill Mike Waltz’s congressional seat is drawing attention. Waltz resigned to take on a role with Trump as the national security adviser. Although he won re-election easily last November, current polls show that this race might be more competitive than expected.

Democratic candidate Josh Weil has raised over $10 million, significantly more than Republican Randy Fine, who has around $1 million. Weil is focusing his campaign on issues like the potential threats that Musk poses to Medicare and Social Security, tapping into voter concerns about social safety nets.

Polls suggest a tighter race than analysts anticipated. If Democrats can narrow the gap significantly or win, it could signal shifting tides for the party. Right now, Republicans have a slim 218-213 majority in the U.S. House, making every seat essential.

Another special election in Florida’s panhandle will fill a seat once held by Matt Gaetz, who resigned his position after being nominated for a different role that later fell through. Republican Jimmy Patronis is favored to win this seat.

As voters head to the polls, the outcomes in both states could send ripples through national politics, especially regarding Trump and his allies. For a closer look at the state of political funding, visit AdImpact’s tracking page here and for insights on the Supreme Court’s influence, check this article on Wisconsin’s court.

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