Uncovering the Mystery: Asteroid with 3.8% Chance of Striking the Moon Originated from an Unexpected Source

A newly identified asteroid, 2024 YR4, is making waves as it approaches Earth. Astronomers recently uncovered details about this space rock’s dramatic history and its possible impact on the Moon.

Using powerful telescopes at the Keck Observatory in Hawaii, researchers studied 2024 YR4 and found that it likely broke off from a larger asteroid after a collision. Curiously, this asteroid comes from the main asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter, a region typically not known for producing Earth-crossing asteroids.

“The shape of the asteroid gives us insights into its formation and stability,” said Bryce Bolin, a research scientist at Eureka Scientific. “This information is vital if we need to think about how to divert it from a potential threat.” This research will appear in The Astrophysical Journal Letters.

The asteroid was first spotted by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in December 2024. Initially, NASA flagged 2024 YR4 as a potentially hazardous object, with a 3% chance of striking Earth on December 22, 2032. However, worries eased when more calculations indicated it had a near-zero chance of colliding with our planet.

But what about the Moon? According to NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies, the chances of 2024 YR4 impacting the Moon have increased from 1.7% to 3.8%. This update is based on recent data from the Webb Telescope plus ground observations.

If the asteroid does make contact, it won’t change the Moon’s orbit but could create a sizeable impact crater. “It’s among the largest asteroids that could hit the Moon in recent years,” Bolin noted. “If it strikes, it will allow us to study the relationship between an asteroid’s size and the crater it creates—something we’ve not measured directly.”

Asteroid 2024 YR4 measures between 174 and 220 feet wide—about the size of a ten-story building. Its irregular shape and density are similar to solid rock, and it spins backward, taking around 20 minutes to make one full rotation.

Many larger asteroids are considered “rubble piles,” made from fragments that have come together after breaking off from larger bodies. Scientists suspect that 2024 YR4 was once a boulder on the surface of such a pile.

The research team also examined 2024 YR4’s orbit, revealing that it likely originated in the central region of the main asteroid belt. Most Earth-crossing asteroids come from the inner belt. However, due to its unique retrograde spin, 2024 YR4 has taken an unusual path toward Earth.

When first detected, it was about 515,116 miles away from our planet. Since then, it has moved farther away, with its next close approach scheduled for December 2028. Ground-based telescopes are tracking it, but it will be too faint to observe until mid-2028. Thus, capturing data now is crucial before it becomes challenging to detect.

“The data from our research will help assess the physical traits of asteroids that might impact Earth, allowing for a rapid response if needed,” Bolin added. Knowing whether an asteroid is a rubble pile or solid rock is essential for planning any necessary actions.

This highlights how even distant space rocks can have a direct link to Earth, reminding us of the dynamic and sometimes precarious nature of our solar system.

Source link

asteroids,potentially hazardous asteroids,the moon