The UN’s Global Environment Outlook (GEO-7) has raised a serious alarm about our planet’s climate. It warns that we’re nearing critical tipping points that could drastically change our environment in the coming years.
These tipping points include significant shifts in weather patterns, such as monsoons becoming erratic and a loss of Arctic sea ice. This could alter the jet stream, impacting weather events globally. Notably, the report highlights the risk of losing coral reefs and the potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which plays a crucial role in regulating global temperatures.
A team of 287 scientists from 82 countries prepared this report. They noted that recent temperature rises might mean that earlier climate forecasts, like those from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), might be too optimistic about our future. The average global temperature could rise beyond 1.5°C in the early 2030s, and 2°C in the 2040s.
According to the report, extreme weather caused by climate change has already cost the global economy about $143 billion each year over the last two decades. Additionally, around 20% to 40% of land worldwide is degraded, affecting over three billion people. Shockingly, pollution contributes to about nine million deaths annually.
Health damages from air pollution alone accounted for a staggering $8.1 trillion in 2019—around 6.1% of global GDP. If we don’t shift our course, climate change could shrink global GDP by as much as 20% by the end of the century.
Specific regions will feel this more than others. Changes in monsoon patterns, driven by pollution and greenhouse gases, could have dire consequences for countries like India, where people are forced to migrate from rural to urban areas due to climate stresses. In 2022 alone, Asia-Pacific faced 140 disasters, which resulted in 7,500 deaths and impacted over 64 million people.
Former climate scientist M Rajeevan pointed out that warming and freshwater shifts in North Atlantic waters are weakening the AMOC. This can disrupt weather patterns across South Asia, affecting monsoon seasons and agricultural production.
Despite these alarming projections, the GEO-7 also offers a glimmer of hope. A “whole-of-society” approach could yield macroeconomic advantages, potentially reaching $20 trillion per year by 2070. This shift involves moving beyond simple GDP metrics to include measures of human and environmental well-being, encouraging sustainable practices in agriculture, energy, and waste management.
As UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen puts it, the choices we make now can either lead us to a future ravaged by climate change or guide us toward healthier societies and economies. There’s already been progress, such as international agreements on climate action and growth in renewable energy sectors, suggesting that it’s still possible to change our trajectory.
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Global Environment Outlook,United Nations Environment Programme,Arctic sea ice,Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation,climate change,tipping points
