Urgent Warning: 9 Million Americans at Risk of Losing Health Insurance if Trump’s Budget Bill Fails – What You Need to Know

The White House recently highlighted a troubling economic projection. A memo suggests that between 8.2 million and 9.2 million Americans might lose their health insurance if a crucial budget bill, dubbed the "big, beautiful bill," fails to pass. Currently, about 27 million people are uninsured. Without action, that number could soar to around 36 million, bringing us closer to the nearly 50 million uninsured before the Affordable Care Act (ACA) kicked in back in 2010.

This memo outlines a dire scenario. It assumes that states, facing budget constraints, might limit Medicaid and unemployment support during a severe recession. Notably, it assumes no additional policies would be introduced to counteract this, which the White House admits is an unlikely worst-case scenario.

Financial experts warn that the expiration of the 2017 Trump tax cuts could lead to a "moderate to severe recession." This recession could result in higher taxes, reduced small business investment, and ultimately, a contracting GDP similar to what we saw during the 2008 financial crisis. Unemployment might rise by four percentage points, resulting in about 6.5 million job losses, many of which were previously covered by employer-sponsored insurance.

When people lose their jobs, they often lose their health coverage too. The data indicates that about 60% of those losing jobs might lose their insurance, pushing around 3.9 million more people into the uninsured category. Moreover, individuals who already lack employer-supported coverage are likely to find it impossible to purchase insurance on their own, further adding to the crisis.

The memo predicts that without the necessary bill, Medicaid and ACA enrollment could see a drop of 10%, leading to a loss of 500,000 to 1 million people gaining or maintaining coverage. Strikingly, those most affected might include gig workers and early retirees—groups already vulnerable in today’s job market.

House Speaker Mike Johnson is racing against time to push this budget bill through Congress, aiming for approval by Memorial Day. However, he faces challenges from within his party as Republicans maintain a slim majority in the House. The bill encompasses over $5 trillion in tax cuts, partly offset by budget adjustments elsewhere. It also seeks to fulfill several of Trump’s campaign promises, like creating tax breaks for auto loans on American-made cars and establishing a tax-free account for children born during a potential second term.

In a world where health insurance can often feel precarious, this budget bill plays a pivotal role in determining the future for many Americans. The stakes are high as political leaders navigate the complex interplay of health, economy, and policy.

For more in-depth analysis, you can read the original White House memo here.

Source link