Why a Former Indian Envoy Believes the Israel-Iran Conflict Will Not Lead to World War III

Ernakulam: Former ambassador TP Srinivasan shared insights on the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict, emphasizing it’s unlikely to escalate into a global war. He pointed out that the current tensions aren’t surprising. When nuclear disarmament talks began, former U.S. President Donald Trump hinted that failure to reach an agreement could lead to military action. Interestingly, Iran has expressed a willingness to discuss terms similar to Trump’s previous disarmament framework, which surprised many.

Srinivasan noted that any new agreement would prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. During his tenure in Vienna, he observed firsthand how the U.S. and five European countries sought to restrict Iran’s nuclear ambitions. They had successfully negotiated a deal during President Obama’s administration, preventing Iran from pursuing nuclear weapons for 15 years. At the time, Iran was facing severe economic challenges, driving them to accept those terms.

War Isn’t the Answer

Srinivasan stressed that outright conflict will not solve the issue. "No one benefits from war," he stated. He believes Iran will not abandon its nuclear programs, and the situation is too complex to resolve through military means. He highlighted his experience with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), where reports indicated that Iran’s nuclear activities weren’t fully peaceful. The country is currently under economic strain and is eager to negotiate to lift sanctions.

Arab Nations’ Concerns

The former ambassador mentioned that Arab countries are closely scrutinizing Iran’s nuclear capabilities. He pointed out a Sunni-Shia divide, noting that Gulf nations, driven by Sunni Islam, are resistant to Iran’s influence as a Shia-majority country. This ongoing rivalry shapes their approach to Iran.

A War-Free Future?

Srinivasan believes that Iran is unlikely to target U.S. military bases directly. He feels that the conflict with Israel will remain contained and not lead to World War III. While Iran does cooperate with Russia, Srinivasan argues that there’s little appetite for further escalation. He explained that the continued tensions are separate from Israel’s internal issues and emphasized Iran’s status as a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Recent statistics show that public opinion varies on potential military action against Iran. A survey by the Pew Research Center revealed that 56% of Americans prefer diplomatic negotiations over military intervention. This suggests a growing inclination towards peaceful resolutions rather than conflict.

In summary, while the situation between Israel and Iran remains fraught, the perspectives shared by Srinivasan highlight the complexities at play and suggest that war may not be the answer. For more information on historical conflicts and the broader impacts, you can refer to sources like the Council on Foreign Relations and the IAEA.

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EX DIPLOMAT TP SREENIVASAN, DONALD TRUMP, SHIA SUNNI RIVALRY, IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAMME, ISRAEL IRAN CONFLICT, FORMER INDIAN ENVOY SAYS ISRAEL-IRAN CONFLICT WON'T ESCALATE TO WORLD WAR III