Researchers from the Exploratory Modeling of Human-Natural Systems at IIASA have made important findings about climate change. Achieving the goals set by the Paris Agreement requires serious long-term efforts in carbon dioxide removal (CDR). It’s not just about hitting a target; it’s about sustained action for years to come.
Their studies show that simply reaching net-zero emissions is not enough. Even if global temperatures stabilize at 1.5°C, we still face challenges like sea-level rise and permafrost thaw, which can worsen over time. The International Court of Justice’s 2025 advisory opinion stresses that countries must prevent significant climate damage. Stopping these impacts means global emissions must go negative and stay that way for centuries.
Johannes Bednar, the lead author, highlights that delayed climate impacts are real and damaging lives. “If we take the Court’s opinion seriously, we need a long-term commitment to carbon removal,” he says. Coauthor Artem Baklanov adds that we must see France’s temperature goals as stepping stones, indicating we need to bring temperatures below 1.5°C through major carbon removal efforts well after 2100.
There’s also a call for better legal frameworks to share carbon removal responsibilities fairly among nations and across generations. Unfortunately, such systems are often missing in current climate talks.
A second study in Nature Communications tackles how uncertainty in climate systems should influence our climate strategy. Many current models overlook this uncertainty when creating policies. Researchers found that considering these uncertainties means we should aim for net-zero emissions about ten years earlier than planned and increase immediate carbon prices.
Thomas Gasser, the lead author of this study, compares climate uncertainty to financial caution. Just like we save more when uncertain about income, we need to prepare for potential climate risks. This data shows sustained net-negative emissions aren’t just about reversing temporary overshoot; they’re essential for long-term stability.
Both studies bring a shared message: net-zero emissions are just the starting point. Policymakers need to plan for centuries of negative emissions to limit both immediate and future climate risks. Nations facing strong economic growth amid rising sea levels must adopt more ambitious goals and create clear targets for carbon removal.
Climate stabilization requires robust institutions that tie today’s emissions to future removals over generations. The stakes are high, and action is crucial not just for us today but for future generations.
For a deeper look into the studies, check out the findings published in Environmental Research Letters and Nature Communications.
To read more about these studies, you can visit this link for the first study and here for the second.
