Why China is Expected to Stay Out of India-Pakistan Instability Following the Pahalgam Attack, According to a Former Army Commander

Guwahati: China is unlikely to directly involve itself in the ongoing tensions between India and Pakistan following the recent Pahalgam terror attack. According to Lt Gen (retd) Rana Pratap Kalita, a former Indian Army commander, the current geopolitical climate and tariffs complicate matters. He noted that while China maintains a close friendship with Pakistan, direct involvement in conflicts may not happen anytime soon.

Kalita highlighted that after the 2020 Galwan clash, India and China engaged in extensive talks, which helped resolve many friction points. Recently, both nations have initiated a “normalization process,” including discussions on resuming direct flights and reviving the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra.

The former commander also remarked on the economic impact of increased U.S. tariffs on trade between India and China. Both nations are significant players in global manufacturing and consumption, making any tariff changes especially impactful.

Kalita expressed uncertainty about how, or if, China might respond to the instability triggered by the Pahalgam incident. He emphasized that for now, Chinese involvement seems unlikely. However, he did mention the strategic significance of Pakistan’s sea access for China, which bears watching.

Concerns also extend to the Bangladesh border. Kalita pointed out that anti-India sentiments have risen in Bangladesh, particularly after political changes. The release of leaders from terrorist groups and interactions between Pakistani military officials and local leaders have added to his worries about security dynamics in the region.

The risks of migration from Bangladesh, particularly Islamic fundamentalism’s spread in Northeast India, are troubling, especially in sensitive areas like Assam and Tripura. Additionally, the narrow Siliguri corridor remains a vital vulnerability for India, serving as a link to the Northeast.

As for security threats, Kalita assured that Indian armed forces are well-prepared. Regular threat assessments are conducted, and response mechanisms are in place to address potential issues.

In summary, while the situation remains tense, experts like Kalita believe India is equipped to manage the challenges. With evolving geopolitical landscapes, it’s crucial to keep informed about regional developments.

For more insights into geopolitical relations, check reports from the Council on Foreign Relations here.

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CHINA, PAHALGAM TERROR ATTACK, CHINA TIES WITH PAKISTAN, FORMER LT GEN RANA PRATAP KALITA, CHINA UNLIKELY TO GET INVOLVED IN INDIA-PAK ‘INSTABILITY’ POST PAHALGAM ATTACK: EX-ARMY COMMANDER