Why Foreign Tourism to the US is Declining: Unpacking the Impact of the ‘Trump Slump’

Olja Ivanic was eager to host her cousins from Sweden in Denver this June. They had grand plans for hiking and exploring Los Angeles and San Francisco. But when news broke about President Donald Trump’s confrontation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ivanic’s relatives quickly changed their minds. They opted for a vacation in Europe instead.

“It was hard for them to understand how he treated a democratic leader in the midst of a war,” Ivanic shared. She leads Longevity Labs, a health startup from Austria.

Before this, the U.S. tourism industry had high hopes for 2025. Predictions showed a surge in international travelers, with numbers expected to return to pre-COVID levels. However, early numbers from 2025 painted a different picture.

By March, visits from overseas had dropped by 11.6% compared to last year. Reports of tourists facing arrests and Trump’s tariffs sparked concern, making many think twice about visiting the U.S. The drop was especially noticeable in air travel. For example, flights from Mexico had fallen by 23%.

In the first quarter of 2025, 7.1 million international visitors flocked to the U.S., a 3.3% decline from the same period last year. Predictions from Tourism Economics, a travel forecasting firm, shifted from anticipating a boost in international arrivals to now expecting a decline of about 9.4%.

One significant impact comes from Canada, historically the largest group of visitors to the U.S. In 2024, more than 20.2 million Canadians visited. Due to Trump’s comments about Canada and tariffs, Flight Centre Travel Group noted a 40% drop in leisure bookings to U.S. destinations in March.

Despite this downturn, the National Travel and Tourism Office had previously projected a 6.5% increase in international arrivals for the year. However, Tourism Economics now argues that perceptions of the U.S. may delay a return to pre-pandemic travel levels until 2029. Adam Sacks, president of Tourism Economics, highlighted survey results showing a mix of cancellations and reduced intentions to travel.

The sentiments of international travelers are shifting. Ian Urquhart from Canada canceled his Las Vegas trip in June, expressing frustration over the disrespect shown to Canada. “It felt necessary to signal our discontent,” he said. Meanwhile, Pepa Cuevas from Madrid, who initially planned a ski trip to Colorado, chose Japan instead, citing shock over Trump’s election.

In addition to Canada, visitor numbers from China, Japan, and other countries are declining. Wolfgang Georg Arlt, CEO of the China Outbound Tourism Research Institute, noted a "Trump Slump" affecting leisure trips. The financial implications are real; expected spending by international visitors could fall by $9 billion this year according to Tourism Economics.

The broader picture shows that U.S. perceptions are changing. Marco Jahn of New World Travel reported declines in bookings by 20%-50%, particularly from regions like Scandinavia. Similarly, Beyond, a management platform for vacation rentals, reported a 44% drop in Canadian searches for U.S. rentals after February 1, when tariffs were first announced.

But some factors don’t solely hinge on politics. Takaaki Mitamura from Veltra Corp noted that the weak yen is influencing Japanese travelers, diverting them to countries like South Korea and Australia where travel expenses are lower.

Interestingly, Haruka Atomiya from Tokyo continues to visit the U.S. annually. While she’s worried about the shift in American values, she hopes her travels will reflect her ongoing curiosity about the country, regardless of political changes.

The current landscape of tourism reflects a more complex relationship between politics and travel. With shifting sentiments and changing economics, how travelers view the U.S. could continue to evolve.

For further insights on international travel trends and their implications, you can refer to the National Travel and Tourism Office’s data here.

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