Will the EU and NATO Follow Trump’s Lead in Imposing Tariffs on India and China?

US President Donald Trump has recently urged NATO and EU countries to impose tariffs on China and India, potentially reaching 100%, in a bid to pressure Russia’s President Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine. This call came during a meeting with US and European officials.

Trump has long promised to resolve the Ukraine conflict swiftly if he returns to office. His suggestion of hefty tariffs targets China’s and India’s significant trade ties with Russia, which have helped sustain its economy. Last year, China imported around 109 million tonnes of Russian oil, making up about 20% of its energy imports, while India imported 88 million tonnes, which is 35% of its total oil purchases.

Trump’s push to hit China with tariffs follows a previous 25% tariff he slapped on India. He believes that increasing trade barriers against China could weaken Beijing’s influence over Russia, potentially aiding peace efforts in Ukraine. In a recent letter, he stated that halting Russian oil purchases while enforcing tariffs on China would significantly contribute to ending the conflict.

The situation has evolved since the onset of the Ukraine war in February 2022, when Europe depended on Russia for 45% of its natural gas. This year, that number is expected to drop to about 13%. Yet, Trump is pressing for even stronger actions from Europe.

Tensions with Russia remain high, with recent drone incursions into Polish and Romanian airspace raising alarms. NATO is responding by reinforcing its eastern defenses amid ongoing aerial assaults on Ukraine by Russian forces.

In a Fox News interview, Trump expressed growing impatience with Putin, especially following talks he had in Alaska. He hinted at the possibility of imposing more sanctions on Russian banks and energy sectors in response to the war’s escalation, stating, “We’re going to have to come down very, very strong.”

However, Trump’s authority to impose these tariffs is under scrutiny. A US trade court ruled in May that such tariffs could surpass the powers granted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, and this ruling was upheld by an appeals court. The final word on this legal battle is expected from the Supreme Court in November.

Imposing sanctions on China and India presents challenges for the EU. In 2024, trade between Brussels and Beijing was valued at about €732 billion, with the EU experiencing a significant trade deficit with China. Europe heavily relies on Chinese imports, especially for consumer electronics, which comprise around 40% of imports. Any sudden tariffs could disrupt manufacturing and raise costs for consumers.

Still, some EU nations have indicated support for selective tariffs against China. Recently, finance ministers from the G7, including France and Germany, discussed potential sanctions aimed at countries perceived as facilitating Russia’s aggression.

In response to Trump’s proposals, China’s Foreign Minister asserted that China does not engage in wars or create conflict. As tensions mount, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is set for discussions with China’s Vice Premier to mitigate trade stress.

Relations with India appear to be more constructive. Trump indicated that trade negotiations with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi are progressing smoothly, and both leaders have expressed optimism about reaching a mutually beneficial agreement soon.

As tensions continue to evolve, the global political landscape remains fluid, with trade strategies and international alliances likely to shift in the coming weeks.



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