Democracy is facing a real challenge from the climate crisis. Extreme weather events like floods, wildfires, and heatwaves are starting to interfere with elections. Recent research shows that these environmental issues are changing the way we vote, alongside the usual political factors.
A study by the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA) found that over the past 20 years, at least 94 elections in 52 countries have been disrupted by climate impacts. This is the first global overview highlighting how natural disasters can affect democratic processes.
In 2024 alone, issues like flooding and wildfires disrupted 23 elections across 18 nations, including Brazil, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Senegal. These events led to damage to infrastructure, displacement of voters, and even last-minute changes to how voting was conducted.
Experts are sounding the alarm. Sarah Birch, a political science professor at King’s College London, noted that the pressure on fragile democracies, particularly in Africa and Asia, will only grow. She recommends that elections be scheduled when the chances of disasters are lowest. “The U.S. still holds elections in November, during hurricane season,” she said. “We need to rethink these timelines to minimize disruptions from sudden disasters.”
Recent events illustrate this issue. For instance, during the 2019 election in Mozambique, Cyclone Idai led to widespread destruction. Thousands lost their homes, affecting election results and the distribution of political seats. Similarly, in November 2024, severe flooding in Senegal required firefighters to transport election observers to polling places, complicating the process significantly. Extreme heat has also been problematic. In the Philippines during the last general election, intense temperatures caused ballot-counting machines to fail, leading to serious errors.
Cities are especially vulnerable to rising temperatures. For example, Lagos, Nigeria, now experiences about 89 days a year with temperatures much higher than before the climate crisis began. To tackle these risks, electoral organizers are urged to work closely with meteorologists and disaster response teams. Some areas are already taking steps. In Peru, election officials are receiving training in disaster management. Alberta, Canada, even plans to move its May elections to October to avoid the wildfire season.
Ferran Martínez i Coma, a professor at Griffith University in Australia, believes that training and readiness are crucial. “As natural disasters become more common, we must prepare better. This is vital for protecting the integrity and resilience of elections,” he stated.
Given the potential for climate-related disruptions, it’s clear that adapting our electoral systems is not just advantageous; it’s essential for the future of democracy worldwide.
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climate crisis elections, natural hazards democracy, election disruption 2024, extreme weather voting, international idea report
