A trader recently netted nearly $1 million from bets on Polymarket by accurately predicting military actions involving the U.S. and Israel against Iran. The insights come from Bubblemaps, a company that analyzes blockchain transactions. This trader had an impressive win rate of 93% on bets concerning events that were often secretive in nature.
Their strategy involved placing significant bets just hours before critical military actions. For instance, they predicted Israeli strikes during a conflict in October 2024 and U.S. airstrikes against Iranian nuclear sites in mid-2025. Such timing raises eyebrows about potential insider trading, a concern echoed by experts.
Nick Vaiman, CEO of Bubblemaps, commented on the situation, stating that the trader’s winning pattern points to suspicious activity. However, it remains uncertain if the trader has insider information, as their identity is hidden, and the accounts used are anonymous.
Polymarket, accessible internationally but not fully regulated in the U.S., did not comment on the matter. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) recently approved Polymarket to allow U.S. users, although the site isn’t fully operational yet. Experts suggest that U.S. traders can bypass this by using virtual private networks (VPNs).
The CFTC’s oversight comes after previous investigations into Polymarket, which had faced scrutiny for potentially allowing U.S. users on offshore platforms. In response to rising concerns, Polymarket has implemented new rules to prohibit insider trading and clarify what constitutes insider information.
Todd Phillips, a finance professor at Georgia State University, noted the extreme win rates of the trader under scrutiny. Most high-frequency traders average slightly above a 50% success rate, making the trader’s near-perfect return particularly concerning.
“It’s either incredible luck or insider trading,” Phillips said, highlighting that trades made minutes before significant events feel “too good to be true.” While many large bets were made shortly before military actions, others occurred well in advance, suggesting variable patterns of betting behavior.
The ongoing war in Iran has also spotlighted platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, as lawmakers express worry about insider trades and “death markets” surrounding crucial global events. Kalshi, which operates with CFTC approval, has also enacted stricter rules to filter potential conflicts of interest among its users.
Concerns surrounding insider trading are pervasive, not only in predictive markets but also throughout financial arenas like Wall Street. Jason Trost, CEO of Smarkets, a regulated prediction platform in the UK, indicated that valuable but non-public information could theoretically be available to all, as long as it’s ethically sourced. “The more information that circulates in the marketplace, the healthier it is,” he said.
Amid these developments, U.S. lawmakers have proposed legislation to prevent federal officials from using non-public information for betting on markets, while the CFTC has reiterated its authority to investigate insider trading activities within these platforms.
For users engaging in these markets, understanding the ethical lines is crucial. As more people participate in prediction markets, the call for clarity, fairness, and integrity within these evolving financial landscapes grows ever louder.
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