The Houthis of Yemen have entered the Iran conflict in a way that could change the game. The real question is whether they will simply launch missiles at Israel or try to block shipping in the Bab al-Mandab strait, just as Iran has in the Strait of Hormuz. If they succeed, it could create massive disruptions for shipping across the Red Sea. Napoleon Bonaparte once said, “The policy of a state lies in its geography,” and this couldn’t ring truer today.
The Houthis, a Shia group controlling parts of Yemen since 2014, have proven to be a resilient force. They have faced heavy losses, including the assassination of their prime minister and key leaders by Israel. Yet, their leader, Abdul Malik Al-Houthi, remains elusive.
Interestingly, the Houthis have not directly engaged in actions on behalf of Iran, despite receiving arms from there, as per United Nations reports. Since May 2025, a ceasefire mediated by Oman has helped halt attacks on U.S. shipping in the strait. This ceasefire reflects the Houthis’ weakened position after sustained U.S. strikes on their missile launchers. However, they’ve made it clear that this pause does not apply to Israel, as they continued some attacks afterward.
The motivation behind the ceasefire can also be traced back to Iran’s interest in improving its political leverage in upcoming nuclear talks with the U.S. The Houthis expanded this ceasefire to Israel after Israel’s agreement with Hamas in Gaza. Even after the U.S.-Israeli strikes against Iran, the Houthis chose to hold back, which shows a strategic choice.
Major shipping companies like Maersk have slowly resumed operations in the Red Sea, but many are still wary, preferring to avoid longer routes that would significantly increase costs. The Bab al-Mandab strait, located between Yemen and the Horn of Africa, is especially vulnerable to drone and missile attacks from the Houthis.
Farea Al-Muslimi from Chatham House warns that ongoing disruptions would not only raise shipping costs but could also push oil prices higher, putting extra pressure on a global economy already in turmoil due to events in the Strait of Hormuz.
There’s a chance the Houthis will proceed with caution as they seek financial benefits from Saudi Arabia, especially since Saudi forces recently dealt a blow to the Southern Transitional Council (STC) in southern Yemen. With the UAE’s withdrawal from Yemen, Saudi Arabia is now solely responsible for the region’s future. This complicated situation means that Riyadh might look for backdoor deals with the Houthis to reduce threats in the Red Sea.
While the STC is still active, it is currently inactive and waiting for a chance to rise again. Saudi Arabia is committed to supporting the new government in the south, which might lead the Houthis to consider a deal for a share of financial resources to keep peace.
Ultimately, the Houthis’ strength lies in their ability to disrupt shipping rather than simply targeting Israel with missiles. This ongoing conflict could push Yemen further away from peace after years of civil war. The UN’s special envoy for Yemen, Hans Grundberg, has voiced concerns that escalating tensions might deepen economic hardships and extend the suffering of civilians. This warning is one of many, and it’s clear that the stakes are high.
For further reading, check out The Guardian’s coverage for a deeper dive into Houthi actions and their regional implications.
