New research from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) shows a troubling trend in food prices. When prices rise due to events like war or extreme weather, they tend to fall back very slowly, leaving families with high grocery bills long after the crisis has passed.
On average, prices drop just 1% of their original spike after six months, 5% after a year, and only 7% after two years. This means that, in real terms, just about a third of the affordability shock is addressed after two years. This phenomenon is often called the “rocket and feathers” effect: food prices soar quickly but drift down slowly.
Chris Jaccarini, a food analyst with ECIU, points out that factors like conflict and climate change are driving these price increases. For instance, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East is pushing up oil, gas, and fertilizer costs, essential for food production and transport.
In England, severe harvests in recent years have also played a role. Climate experts warn that the only way to stabilize food prices is to reach net-zero emissions. Reducing reliance on fossil fuels would not only combat climate change but also protect consumers from price spikes driven by volatile global markets. According to Jaccarini, once prices go up, they often stay up. “Prevention is the only cure,” he says.
The ECIU’s report reveals that when commodity prices rise, retail prices lag and then exceed these increases. As costs stabilize, retail prices often remain elevated, creating a wider gap. This suggests that while supply shocks can inflate prices, the effects linger, leading to long-term affordability issues.
Henry Dimbleby, a former leader of the UK’s National Food Strategy, warns that unless we address root causes—like low resilience in food supply chains—food inflation could persist. Climate change and energy costs are intertwined with food prices, and without adapting, we may face shocks that will become more frequent and intense.
Recent statistics show steep price increases for staples: pasta is up 50%, frozen vegetables dive up 55%, and olive oil has jumped 113%. Predictions estimate food prices in the UK could be 50% higher by November 2026 compared to the mid-2021 baseline. This rapid inflation could mean that price growth seen over the last two decades may happen in just over five years.
Scientists also sound the alarm for El Niño, a phenomenon that tends to disrupt agriculture. Its current intertwining with climate change could exacerbate issues for crops like cocoa, rice, and coffee, which are already under threat.
The consequences for households are dire. Food prices have already surged over 40% since mid-2021, while wages have only increased by around 30%. For the lowest-earning families, a healthy diet now consumes about 70% of their disposable income, making nutrition increasingly unaffordable.
Anna Taylor, Executive Director of the Food Foundation, emphasizes the long-lasting impact of these shocks. Once food prices rise, they rarely return to normal, making life harder for many. She argues for a long-term plan focused on food resilience, urging the establishment of a “Good Food Bill,” which would protect families and businesses alike.
Even the Bank of England is concerned. Central banks struggle to manage inflation caused by these supply shocks since current monetary policies are ill-equipped to tackle the root causes.
David Barmes from the London School of Economics highlights the deeper problem. Supply-side shocks driven by climate change and geopolitical tensions complicate inflation control. Efficiently tackling these issues requires linking climate action with economic stability.
For more details, you can access the full ECIU report here.
The intersection of climate issues and food prices is a pressing concern. As conditions change, it’s clear that the strategies we choose today will drastically affect economic and nutritional stability for generations to come.
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