Climate diplomats will gather in China this week to kick off work on the next Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, crucial for shaping global warming policies. However, U.S. officials will not be present this time.
Reports indicate that U.S. scientists involved in the IPCC assessments received a stop-work order from the Trump administration. This led to NASA’s chief scientist, Kate Calvin, stepping back from her role in the new report cycle. Both NASA and Calvin have not responded to requests for comment.
This lack of U.S. participation comes against a backdrop of reduced research funding and diminished climate diplomacy during the Trump years. Experts worry about the future of the IPCC without significant U.S. input. The IPCC is widely regarded as the leading source of reliable climate change information.
“Without the U.S., the IPCC fails,” said Benjamin Horton, director of the Earth Observatory of Singapore. He notes that the U.S. plays a vital role, contributing vast financial resources, personnel, and data—more than any other country.
A 2023 analysis revealed that about 18% of IPCC authors are from the U.S., more than double the second-largest contributor, the U.K.
The meeting in Hangzhou will focus on plans for the seventh assessment report, expected in 2029, alongside discussions on carbon removal and capture technologies. These assessments condense scientific findings about climate change, helping to guide global policy and negotiations.
The IPCC has gained significant confidence in climate science since its formation in 1988, producing six in-depth assessments. Each report has shown greater certainty about human impact on climate change. For instance, in 1995, it acknowledged “a discernible human influence on global climate.” By 2021, it stated, “It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land.” This progression highlights the growing understanding of our role in climate change.
Not all scientists believe the IPCC’s future hinges on U.S. involvement. Detlef van Vuuren, a climate researcher from Utrecht University, argues that while the absence of the U.S. would be significant, the IPCC can endure. He pointed out the irony that a nation contributing heavily to both emissions and climate science would choose to dismiss established facts.
As the world continues to confront climate challenges, the role of the IPCC will remain critical, regardless of the participation of any single country.
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