The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is reshaping how we view global food security. While many have focused on climate change, there’s a more pressing issue: access to energy resources vital for modern farming.
Did you know that artificial fertilizers provide about half of the calories we eat? They rely heavily on natural gas. If fossil fuels ran out, we could see severe food shortages affecting half the global population.
The war in Iran has led to a blockade at the Hormuz Strait, a key passage for fertilizers. Remarkably, about a quarter of the world’s fertilizer moves through this strait. The blockade is impacting supplies, which could raise fertilizer prices by 15-20% and put 45 million people at risk of acute hunger, according to the United Nations.
For years, we’ve been warned about the dangers of fossil fuel use and its link to climate change. However, this narrative overshadows a major achievement: our ability to improve food security over the last century. In fact, food has become cheaper and more abundant, with productivity and innovation driving this change. The numbers show that climate change is a relatively minor hurdle in our fight against food scarcity.
Looking back, the League of Nations reported in 1928 that two-thirds of the world faced hunger. Today, that figure is less than 10%. Before recent global disruptions, we even dipped below 7%. This decline is not a coincidence—cereal production has quintupled, and global food prices have halved in real terms. Thanks to economic growth, billions have escaped extreme poverty and can now afford nutritious meals.
Recent projections from the U.N. suggest a record global harvest for 2025/26 because crops were planted before the current crises. However, challenges remain, especially in places like sub-Saharan Africa, where food insecurity affects 670 million people. Low yields, reliance on subsistence farming, and lack of access to fertilizers and mechanized agriculture are major barriers.
Despite ongoing concerns about climate change, many Western organizations push for organic farming in regions that desperately need access to artificial fertilizers. This isn’t just a theoretical discussion; in 2021, Sri Lanka saw rice yields drop by over 30% after switching to organic methods. The data suggests that reducing dependence on fertilizers can lead to food shortages.
Climate activists often highlight the dangers of climate change for agriculture. While changes in farming conditions are indeed anticipated, studies suggest these changes will have a minimal net negative effect—less than 0.06% of global GDP by century’s end. Interestingly, carbon dioxide, a byproduct of fossil fuels, actually acts as a natural fertilizer and has helped green the planet significantly over the past two decades.
Even under extreme warming scenarios, global food production is expected to increase by 49-51% by 2050. In contrast, aggressive reductions in emissions could hinder food production. The cost of fertilizers, fuel, and land would rise, negatively impacting small farmers and potentially leaving an additional 50 million people hungry by mid-century.
The recent geopolitical turmoil reinforces the idea that food security relies more on stable access to energy and agricultural inputs rather than distant climate predictions. If we want to combat hunger, particularly in poorer regions, we should focus on increasing access to fertilizers instead of limiting the resources that enable large-scale food production.
In conclusion, a balanced approach that prioritizes economic growth and food production will better serve global food security than drastic cuts to emissions. We must remember that our ability to produce and access food is our most valuable asset in fighting hunger.
For further insights, you can check out United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization.
