A recent study by MIT has uncovered how climate change is affecting conditions in space, especially around Earth. This shift could endanger the operation of satellites in orbit over time.
The researchers found that rising carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are causing the upper atmosphere to shrink. This change reduces the drag on old satellites and space debris, resulting in a higher chance of collisions due to increased congestion in orbit.
Richard Linares, an associate professor at MIT, explains, “The way we have managed greenhouse gases over the last century is affecting how our satellites will function in the next century.”
The study focused on the thermosphere, a layer of the atmosphere where many satellites, including the International Space Station, operate. Typically, this layer expands and contracts over an 11-year solar cycle influenced by solar activity.
However, it has been found that greenhouse gas emissions are exacerbating the thermosphere’s contraction. This leads to lower density at high altitudes, allowing defunct satellites and debris to stay in orbit longer than they should. William Parker, a graduate student involved in the research, noted, “The upper atmosphere is becoming fragile as climate change disrupts its natural state.”
In recent years, there has been a huge increase in satellite launches, particularly for internet services. If this trend continues without addressing emissions, space could become overcrowded, leading to more collisions and increasing the risk of debris.
The researchers used simulations to estimate that, by 2100, certain altitudes could only support 50 to 66 percent fewer satellites without increasing collision risks. They modeled how future levels of greenhouse gas emissions might change atmospheric density and affect orbital behavior.
In a denser atmosphere, satellites typically descend and burn up upon reaching the end of their life cycle. But with less atmospheric drag resulting from a contracted thermosphere, outdated satellites linger for decades, cluttering essential orbital pathways.
The study highlights the importance of managing satellite traffic and collision-avoidance strategies. The increase in satellite numbers, particularly from mega-constellations like SpaceX’s Starlink, puts more pressure on space traffic management.
Currently, there are over 10,000 satellites in low-Earth orbit. This growth prevents the atmosphere from clearing debris naturally, raising the concern that aging satellites and other debris may remain in orbit for far longer than intended. A single collision can generate debris that may circle the Earth for years, potentially leading to further collisions.
Ultimately, the findings of this research stress the critical need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. What we do on Earth today profoundly impacts our operations in space tomorrow. According to Parker, “The long-term outlook for orbital debris is directly tied to our response to climate change.”
This study is published in Nature Sustainability.
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