How India and Pakistan averted War: Key Steps to Peace and Stability

India and Pakistan are both declaring success after their recent confrontation, which nearly led to war between these nuclear-armed neighbors. Yet, experts believe that U.S. intervention for a ceasefire gave Pakistan the upper hand in diplomacy.

India launched missiles targeting air bases and alleged terrorist sites deep inside Pakistan. Officials claimed this action created a deterrent against Pakistani support for cross-border terrorism. Meanwhile, Pakistan believes it achieved a “historic victory,” asserting it shot down five Indian fighter jets. For the first time, both countries used drones to strike deep within each other’s territories.

“India might feel justified in thinking it can engage more boldly under the nuclear threat,” noted Ankit Panda from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “On the other hand, Pakistan’s military feels reassured that it has restored its deterrent capabilities.”

Casualty figures differ, with India reporting 16 civilians and five soldiers lost, while Pakistan cited the deaths of at least 33 civilians and one soldier. India also claimed that up to 40 Pakistani military personnel were killed.

Despite the military exchanges, analysts argue that the U.S. efforts to prevent a larger conflict frustrated India. It felt that such actions linked the world’s largest democracy with a country it views as a supporter of terrorism.

Former Indian foreign secretary Shyam Saran pointed out that this situation set back India’s attempts to separate its image from Pakistan’s. “We had been successful in de-hyphenating our relationship with Pakistan, but now that distinction is lost,” he said.

President Donald Trump acknowledged the leadership shown by both nations to stop fighting, suggesting a solution concerning Kashmir, the contested region at the heart of their tensions. While both countries claim Kashmir in its entirety, India firmly opposes any international mediation efforts.

This recent conflict comes as India is in negotiations with the U.S. to avoid a hefty 26% tariff on its exports. Trump hinted that trade discussions played a role in pushing both countries towards a ceasefire, although Indian officials have disputed this claim.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in a recent address, highlighted India’s military achievements, targeting what he termed “terrorist infrastructure” deep inside Pakistan. He emphasized that these operations would continue until the threat of terrorism dissipates, especially from what he referred to as “universities of global terrorism” in Pakistan.

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif also celebrated what he called a “historic victory,” suggesting that it deterred India, which he accused of civilian casualties. The Pakistani military claimed it successfully used Chinese-made aircraft to down several Indian jets and launched ballistic missiles targeting Indian military installations.

The rapid escalation of military action between the two countries marks a new chapter in their long-standing rivalry. Yet, analysts believe that the focus on nuclear capabilities may overshadow discussions about terrorism, which remains a pressing concern for both nations.

As tensions continue, the future of peace in South Asia remains uncertain, with recent events emphasizing the urgent need for dialogue and conflict resolution. The world is watching closely, as this region remains a potential flashpoint that could affect global stability.

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