Last Monday, we set the bar for Kentucky basketball: if they went 1-1 against Vanderbilt and Arkansas, it’d be a solid week. What happened was a rollercoaster ride. The Cats lost to Vanderbilt by 25 but turned the tide with an upset win over Arkansas in Fayetteville.
Now, Kentucky’s looking better in the NCAA Tournament picture, climbing back to No. 28 in the NET Rankings. After their loss to Vanderbilt, they dropped to No. 35. The Cats are currently 5-6 in Quad 1 games, thanks to their victory over Arkansas. Interestingly, Indiana’s rise to No. 30 in the NET has reclassified Kentucky’s earlier win against them as a Quad 1 victory.
Kentucky now boasts more Quad 1 wins than teams like Arkansas, Florida, and North Carolina. This week, they have a chance to add another Quad 1 win against Tennessee, ranked No. 21. Meanwhile, Wednesday’s matchup against Oklahoma is now considered a Quad 3 game after the Sooners plummeted down the rankings due to eight consecutive losses.
Despite the ups and downs, Kentucky’s schedule remains tough. Six of their nine remaining games are Quad 1 matchups. If the team can find its footing, a good seed is within reach for Selection Sunday, just 41 days away.
Here’s how Kentucky’s records stack up in different quadrants:
- Quad 1: 5-6 (6 games remaining)
- Quad 1A: 3-5
- Quad 1B: 2-1
- Quad 2: 1-1 (2 games remaining)
- Quad 3: 3-0 (1 game remaining)
- Quad 4: 7-0 (no games remaining)
Noteworthy Insights
Kentucky’s win over Indiana is crucial for their resume. If Indiana continues to do well, that win could bolster Kentucky’s ranking. However, losses to teams like Missouri, currently at NET 70, could hurt if the Tigers drop below No. 75.
As it stands, Kentucky has the third-toughest schedule in the nation. Only Oklahoma and Vanderbilt have it tougher, according to ESPN’s BPI. Experts believe that if the Cats can secure victories in their upcoming games and capitalize on their opportunities, they might just secure a solid NCAA Tournament seed.
The Path Ahead
Looking at KenPom’s projections, Kentucky is expected to win all its games outside the Quad 1 matches. There are also several toss-up games in which they have a decent chance of winning.
Here’s a quick breakdown of their upcoming games:
| Likely (≥65%) | Toss-Ups (36%–64%) | Unlikely (≤35%) |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 4 – vs. Oklahoma (Home) | Feb 7 – vs. Tennessee (Home) | Feb 14 – @ Florida (Away) |
| Feb 17 – vs. Georgia (Home) | Feb 28 – vs. Vanderbilt (Home) | Feb 21 – @ Auburn (Away) |
| Feb 24 – @ South Carolina (Away) | Mar 3 – @ Texas A&M (Away) | |
| Mar 7 – vs. Florida (Home) |
If Kentucky can take care of business in the easier games and win a good portion of the toss-ups, hopes for a successful season remain strong.
