The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) continues to deliver vital climate alerts, despite facing challenges from budget cuts under the Trump administration. On March 20, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center published a spring outlook, highlighting concerning drought conditions ahead.
This forecast reveals ongoing dryness in the Southwest, where a long-term megadrought, influenced by global warming, is disrupting water supplies for both urban areas and essential agricultural regions. Presently, about 40% of the continental U.S. is experiencing drought or abnormally dry conditions. These issues are expected to persist, especially in the Rocky Mountains and Southern Plains.
Water officials have raised alarms about the Colorado River. Even with near-average snowfall, river flows are projected to decline. In New Mexico, it’s anticipated that the Rio Grande may dry up entirely in Albuquerque by June. A recent 2024 study highlighted how global warming alters the expected water flow in Western rivers, showing measurements falling short compared to historical data based solely on snowpack.
Recent research is raising concerns about how drought risks are underestimated in climate reports. A 2023 study indicated that rising temperatures are causing rapid moisture loss from plants and soils. This leads to more severe droughts, with changing winter snow patterns and increased heat contributing to what experts call “flash droughts.”
“We’re looking at a triple threat,” warns Dave Breshears, a climate researcher at the University of Arizona. He adds that hotter droughts increase the likelihood and severity of wildfires. His research shows that prolonged hotter droughts can lead to widespread die-offs of trees, creating more fuel for future blazes. Breshears emphasizes the need for NOAA to receive more resources, not less, as accurate data is crucial for managing these growing climate threats.
Interestingly, in February, the Trump administration proposed significant cuts to NOAA’s workforce, aiming to improve efficiency. However, a federal judge intervened, temporarily halting these efforts. Despite this, Congress has recently passed resolutions that reduce NOAA’s budget by 11%, which complicates the agency’s ability to fulfill its mission.
Concerns about diminished resources were echoed by University of Michigan climate scientist Jonathan Overpeck. He noted that the Western U.S. faces a challenging future, with above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation leading to intensified conditions of the ongoing megadrought.
“This is what hot drought looks like,” Overpeck stated. He believes unless fossil fuel use is curtailed, the situation will worsen in the coming years.
NOAA plays a crucial role in gathering data necessary for understanding and responding to climate change, and experts emphasize the importance of supporting this agency’s work. A strong commitment to climate science and preparedness is vital for safeguarding public health, food supplies, and ecosystems across the country.
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