Stunning 1-in-100,000 Odds: Could a Passing Star Catapult Earth Out of Our Solar System?

In about 5 billion years, the Sun will run out of hydrogen and begin to swell into a red giant. This transition could likely spell doom for Mercury, and possibly Venus, Earth, and even Mars, depending on what happens in our solar system leading up to that event.

Recent research sheds new light on this topic. A study published in the journal Icarus suggests that previous theories on our solar system’s stability may have missed some crucial factors. It turns out our planetary system is more fragile than we thought.

Scientists estimate that over the next billion years, our solar system will have about 19 close encounters with other stars. These stars could wreak havoc on our planetary order. In fact, the new simulations suggest that about 2% of scenarios could result in planets being ejected from their orbits.

For example, Pluto has a 5% chance of instability due to shifts in the orbits of larger planets like Neptune. Mercury, being the closest to the Sun, is at the highest risk. Its odds of being tossed out of the solar system have increased significantly, by about 50 to 80%. Earth faces a 1-in-500 chance of either being ejected or colliding with another planet. Interestingly, Mars has a slightly higher risk of 0.3%.

The urgency of this research is highlighted by a recent survey from the American Astronomical Society, where 92% of astronomers believe understanding stellar interactions is key to forecasting long-term changes in our solar system.

While the thought of losing our home among the stars is alarming, we benefit from the fact that no stars are expected to come close in the near future. But as scientists continue to gather insights, who knows how our understanding of cosmic stability might evolve? What’s clear is that we need to be prepared, not just for the distant future, but for the innumerable surprises our universe might hold.

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