Astronomers recently noted that the upper stage of a Falcon 9 rocket, launched in early 2025, is set to hit the Moon this summer. The anticipated impact will take place on August 5 at 2:44 AM ET (06:44 UTC), likely on the Moon’s near side.
Bill Gray, who developed the Project Pluto software for tracking near-Earth objects, has shared a detailed report on this event. The rocket piece stands 13.8 meters (45 feet) tall and has a diameter of 3.7 meters (12 feet). Since the Moon lacks an atmosphere, it will crash into the surface without disintegrating.
Though the Moon will be visible from the eastern parts of the U.S., Canada, and much of South America, Gray believes the impact might be too faint for ground-based telescopes to detect.
Gray and other astronomers are quite sure that this object, named 2025-010D, is the Falcon 9’s upper stage. This launch took place on January 15, 2025, carrying two lunar landers, Firefly’s Blue Ghost and ispace’s Hakuto-R. After they separated, the landers tracked their paths to the Moon. While Blue Ghost managed a successful landing, the other parts, including the fairing, returned to Earth.
“The upper stage kept orbiting Earth but was at a higher altitude and did not come back. It made several close passes near the Moon and Earth, but none were close enough for a likely impact,” Gray explained. By February 26, 2026, astronomers had collected over 1,000 observations of it, tracking its movements whenever conditions allowed.
This event is part of a growing discussion about space debris. As more objects head to orbit and beyond, experts warn that impacts like these could become more common. In fact, a recent study showed that the amount of space debris has increased significantly in the last decade, raising concerns for future missions.
Public interest is also growing. Social media has seen chatter among space enthusiasts eager to catch a glimpse of the Moon on impact day. This marks a moment of both curiosity and caution in our pursuit of exploration. For more detailed information, you can check out [NASA’s report on space debris](https://www.nasa.gov/space-debris).
