International travel to the U.S. is taking a hit, and new projections show it might drop significantly this year. According to Tourism Economics, the number of visitors from abroad is expected to fall by 9.4%, which is more than double their earlier estimate of a 5% decline.

At the start of the year, hopes were high for international tourism, with predictions of a 9% increase in travelers compared to 2024. However, recent events have changed that outlook. Adam Sacks, president of Tourism Economics, pointed out that high-profile incidents, like the detention of European tourists at U.S. borders, have made potential visitors wary.
Travelers are also frustrated by the Trump administration’s tariffs and controversial remarks regarding Canada and Greenland, along with the heated exchanges with leaders like Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy. “With every misstep, we see a direct impact on international travel to the U.S.,” Sacks said.
This decline will hit various sectors hard, affecting airlines, hotels, and attractions such as national parks. For example, travel from Canada alone is expected to fall by 20%. This is particularly concerning for border states like New York and Michigan, and popular destinations like California and Florida.
The U.S. Travel Association has raised alarms about the implications of fewer Canadian visitors. Even a 10% drop could mean 2 million fewer visits, translating to a loss of $2.1 billion in spending and nearly 14,000 job losses.
Air Canada reported a 10% decrease in bookings to the U.S. for the coming months compared to last year. Sacks anticipated that foreign visitors would spend $9 billion less in the U.S. this year compared to last. Ironically, the tariffs meant to improve the trade balance might actually be hurting it by driving down international tourism.
Before the pandemic, international arrivals were nearly back to 2019 levels. Now, expectations are that it could take until 2029 for those numbers to rebound. The impact is clear: policies and public sentiment are heavily influencing the travel landscape, underscoring how interconnected global travel and politics have become.
To learn more about tourism economics and visitor trends, consider checking out the U.S. Travel Association’s reports here.
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