Conflict in the Persian Gulf, especially the recent tensions in Iran, is causing significant disruptions in fertiliser supplies. This directly affects Africa’s food systems, which are already vulnerable due to various pressures.
Agrifood systems encompass everything involved in food production and distribution. They rely heavily on consistent inputs like fertiliser, which are becoming scarce. When one part of this system falters, others feel the impact. The ongoing conflict in Iran, which intensified in February 2026, demonstrates this clearly.
Gulf countries, especially Iran, are major players in the global fertiliser market. Iran is the fourth-largest exporter of urea, a key component of fertiliser, known for being cost-effective. Nations like Nigeria, Ghana, and Kenya depend on these supplies to boost agricultural yields. However, as a result of the current conflict, the export of urea and other fertilisers from this region has been severely restricted. Qatar, another significant exporter, halted production after attacks on its gas facilities.
Shipping through the crucial Strait of Hormuz has plummeted by 95% since the conflict began, further impeding fertiliser distribution. Sub-Saharan Africa, which imports around 80% of its fertiliser, is facing dire consequences. For countries like Malawi, which relies on Gulf imports for over half of its fertiliser, this is a pressing issue.
With these disruptions, fertiliser prices have surged. Unlike oil, there is no global reserve for fertiliser, meaning when supplies dwindle, they remain low for a long time. This could push more farmers to reduce fertiliser usage, resulting in lower crop yields, reduced income, and heightened food insecurity.
Experts recommend that Africa pivot toward more sustainable agricultural practices. This includes promoting the cultivation of fruits, vegetables, and pulses, which not only enrich soil health but also provide higher nutritional value. Home gardens could also enhance food security, provided communities receive training on best practices.
Additionally, investing in innovative farming techniques, such as agroforestry and sustainable aquaculture, could improve nutrition and resilience. Bio-fortified crops, like the high-iron beans from Rwanda, also show promise by integrating essential nutrients directly into food production.
Historical context reveals that Africa has faced fertiliser supply crises before. The COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine previously stressed supply chains. Farmers adapted by scaling back on fertiliser, leading to decreased yields. Historical reliance on staple crops, often lacking in nutritional value, has compounded the issue. Government subsidies have typically favored these crops over more nutrient-dense options.
Today, thinking outside the box is essential. Interventions must go beyond traditional practices. For instance, scientists are exploring the use of “reporter” plants that change color depending on soil nutrient levels, providing farmers real-time data on crop needs. This could help optimize fertiliser use and reduce waste.
Finally, policymakers need to focus on holistic approaches that address both immediate food security and long-term agricultural sustainability. Investing in nutrition education, infrastructure, and social safety nets can create a more resilient food system that withstands not only current challenges but future shocks as well.
